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Creators/Authors contains: "Black, Bryan A"

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  1. Increasing tropical cyclone (TC) pressure on temperate forests is inevitable under the recent global increase of the in- tensity and poleward migration of TCs. However, the long-term effects of TCs on large-scale structure and diversity of temperate forests remain unclear. Here, we aim to ascertain the legacy of TCs on forest structure and tree species rich- ness by using structural equation models that consider several environmental gradients and use an extensive dataset containing >140,000 plots with >3 million trees from natural temperate forests across eastern United States impacted by TCs. We found that high TC activity (a combination of TC frequency and intensity) leads to a decrease in maximum tree sizes (height and diameter), an increase in tree density and basal area, and a decline in the number of tree species and recruits. We identified TC activity as the strongest predictor of forest structure and species richness in xeric (dry) forests, while it had a weaker impact on hydric (wet) forests. We highlight the sensitivity of forest structure and tree species richness to impacts of likely further increase of TC activity in interaction with climate extremes, especially drought. Our results show that increased TC activity leads to the homogenization of forest structure and reduced tree species richness in U.S. temperate forests. These findings suggest that further declines in tree species richness may be expected because of the projected increase of future levels of TC activity. 
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  2. Proxy records from the late Quaternary help in understanding climate variability on extended time scales. An ancient landslide deposit in Oregon U.S.A. preserved large logs from Douglas fir trees (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco) and afforded an opportunity to explore the response of tree growth to climate on annual and decadal scales. High-precision radiocarbon dating indicates an age exceeding 63 ka, i.e., the trees grew within the generally cool Marine Isotope Stage 5 (MIS 5), likely during a warmer interval optimal for Douglas fir establishment. This would include the prolonged warm MIS 5e (ca. 110–130 ka), corresponding approximately to the Eemian interglacial, which was warm like the current Holocene interglacial. A 297-year tree-ring width chronology from 12 Douglas fir logs and 227-year tree-ring δ13C and δ18O records are analyzed with spectral and wavelet analysis. Variance of the ancient rings is consistent with modern Douglas fir growth sensitive to moisture and ecological disturbances. Spectra of ancient and modern chronologies are dominated by low frequencies with significant spectral peaks appearing at high frequencies (2.1–4 years) and cyclic behavior transient over centuries. It is conceivable that the O-isotopes track moisture and that C-isotopes track temperature or sunlight. The findings illustrate the challenges in assessing the response of ancient tree-ring properties to late Quaternary climate variability. 
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  3. Cores from Searsville Lake within Stanford University’s Jasper Ridge Biological Preserve, California, USA, are examined to identify a potential GSSP for the Anthropocene: core JRBP2018-VC01B (944.5 cm-long) and tightly correlated JRBP2018-VC01A (852.5 cm-long). Spanning from 1900 CE ± 3 years to 2018 CE, a secure chronology resolved to the sub-annual level allows detailed exploration of the Holocene-Anthropocene transition. We identify the primary GSSP marker as first appearance of 239,240 Pu (372–374 cm) in JRBP2018-VC01B and designate the GSSP depth as the distinct boundary between wet and dry season at 366 cm (6 cm above the first sample containing 239,240 Pu) and corresponding to October-December 1948 CE. This is consistent with a lag of 1–2 years between ejection of 239,240 Pu into the atmosphere and deposition. Auxiliary markers include: first appearance of 137 Cs in 1958; late 20th-century decreases in δ 15 N; late 20th-century elevation in SCPs, Hg, Pb, and other heavy metals; and changes in abundance and presence of ostracod, algae, rotifer and protozoan microfossils. Fossil pollen document anthropogenic landscape changes related to logging and agriculture. As part of a major university, the Searsville site has long been used for research and education, serves users locally to internationally, and is protected yet accessible for future studies and communication about the Anthropocene. Plain Word Summary The Global boundary Stratotype Section and Point (GSSP) for the proposed Anthropocene Series/Epoch is suggested to lie in sediments accumulated over the last ~120 years in Searsville Lake, Woodside, California, USA. The site fulfills all of the ideal criteria for defining and placing a GSSP. In addition, the Searsville site is particularly appropriate to mark the onset of the Anthropocene, because it was anthropogenic activities–the damming of a watershed–that created a geologic record that now preserves the very signals that can be used to recognize the Anthropocene worldwide. 
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  4. Warming drives ocean memory loss leading to noisier, less predictable sea surface temperature variability. 
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  5. Abstract Bedrock landsliding, including the formation of landslide dams, is a predominant geomorphic process in steep landscapes. Clarifying the importance of hydrologic and seismic mechanisms for triggering deep‐seated landslides remains an ongoing effort, and formulation of geomorphic metrics that predict dam preservation is crucial for quantifying secondary landslide hazards. Here, we identify >200 landslide‐dammed lakes in western Oregon and utilize dendrochronology and enhanced14C dating (“wiggle matching”) of “ghost forests” to establish slope failure timing at 20 sites. Our dated landslide dataset reveals bedrock landsliding has been common since the last Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquake in January 1700 AD. Our study does not reveal landslides that date to 1700 AD. Rather, we observe temporal clustering ofat leastfour landslides in the winter of 1889/1890 AD, coincident with a series of atmospheric rivers that generated one of the largest regionally recorded floods. We use topographic and field analyses to assess the relation between dam preservation and topographic characteristics of the impounded valleys. In contrast to previous studies, we do not observe systematic scaling between dam size and upstream drainage area, though dam stability indices for our sites correspond with “stable” dams elsewhere. Notably, we observe that dams are preferentially preserved at drainage areas of ∼1.5 to 13 km2and valley widths of ∼25 to 80 m, which may reflect the reduced downstream influence of debris flows and the accumulation of mature conifer trees upstream from landslide‐dammed lake outlets. We suggest that wood accumulation upstream of landslide dams tempers large stream discharges, thus inhibiting dam incision. 
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  6. Abstract Growth‐increment widths of Pacific geoduck (Panopea generosa), a long‐lived bivalve, are used to develop the first marine‐based, multicentennial, annually resolved, and exactly dated archive of Northeast Pacific sea surface temperatures (SST). The chronology is sampled from the Tree Nob Islands, British Columbia, Canada, continuously covers 1725–2008, and also contains nine older radiocarbon‐dated segments, which together span 58% of the last 1,500 years. Age‐related growth declines were removed by aligning all increments relative to age of increment formation and fitting with a single detrending curve to preserve low‐frequency signals. The geoduck chronology was used to reconstruct local SST variability across the seasonal window of April through November. The chronology at both the concurrent (lag‐0) and following (lag+1) year are both highly significant predictors of SST in a stepwise multiple linear regression, explaining 54% of the variance in the period of instrumental overlap (1940–2001), passing strict tests of calibration‐verification. Reconstructed SSTs contained significant spectral power at periods from 3 to 64 years, suggesting that 20th century variability in these periodicities is not unusual in the longer‐term context. The period of lowest growth coincided with the Dalton minimum, an episode of reduced solar irradiance from 1790–1830, as well as the 1809 Unknown eruption, suggesting that solar and volcanic signals are present in the SST history. The most conspicuous aspect of the reconstruction is the steady and unprecedented warming trend that began in the mid‐1800s and continues through present. The post‐1976 interval includes the two warmest decades of the reconstruction. 
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